Could Climate Change Make It Harder to Predict Severe Weather?

There have been a lot of changes in our climate in the last five decades, and if our methods for weather forecasting remained the same as the ones we used before the 1950s, we might be in trouble. Luckily, while severe weather promises to continue (and to be both more frequent and more severe than in even recent history), the science of modeling weather has kept pace. 

That said, severe weather in recent years has developed more rapidly on the whole than it has in the past, giving meteorologists less time to propagate predictions, and resulting in less time for residents and infrastructure providers to react. 

How Do We Predict Severe Weather Events? 

There are a variety of technologies used by scientists to monitor the weather, from radar and satellite to a wide array of sensors on the ground and in the air. Regardless of the source, weather analysis begins with an understanding of current conditions in the atmosphere including temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and direction, and moisture levels. 

Current conditions are input into computer models that simulate the Earth's atmosphere. These models use complex mathematical equations to represent the physical processes that govern weather patterns. By solving these equations, the models can simulate the future state of the atmosphere and make predictions about the weather.

To predict extreme weather events, meteorologists look for patterns and indicators in the current atmospheric conditions that are associated with the development of such events, and weather experts also utilize historical weather data and climatological patterns to enhance their predictions. By studying past events and long-term climate trends, they can identify patterns and relationships that provide insight into the likelihood of extreme weather events occurring in specific regions during certain seasons or atmospheric conditions.

The Margin of Error

Most scientists agree that we are capable of predicting the weather about ten days out. The further into the future we stretch, the greater margin of error. Though the models used today are sophisticated, weather is inherently unpredictable, so there are methods in place to account for the inevitable errors that develop as we look further out. This is where a variety of models, including those built by the data scientists at StormImpact, come into play. By varying the conditions we enter slightly and watching the variations of outcomes, we can add a measure of certainty to forecasts, based on seeing the model outcomes agree more than they disagree. Even with advanced modeling, however, the further out we look, the more the models will diverge. 

Typically, in the case of hurricanes and tropical storms, meteorologists have several days’ warning before landfall is within the realm of foreseeable outcomes, and that has typically allowed coastal regions to prepare for the storms, at least to some degree. As the atmosphere and the ocean water temperatures rise, however, there is some evidence that storms are forming more rapidly, cutting into the forecast and preparation windows. 

Rapidly intensifying weather events have proven disastrous, with this year’s unprecedented flooding in the Northeast last year’s late-season storms Ian and Super Typhoon Noru, which went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane overnight in the Philippines. 

Increasingly rapid formation of weather events and an increase in intensity, thanks to warmer, moister atmospheric conditions both make timely and accurate predictions more critical than ever–and also make them harder to come by. 

Models Help Anticipate Worst-Case Scenarios

Changes in ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and a rising sea level all add fuel to the climate fire when it comes to the development of potentially dangerous weather conditions. What does this mean for the average human? 

The bottom line is that preparation will be key. And while we once were able to rely on history as a good indicator of what the future of extreme weather might look like, we are living in unprecedented times, making the accuracy of weather models our best hope for predicting potential outcomes from future weather. 

Advanced models, like the Hurricane Outage Prediction Model developed by StormImpact’s scientists allow meteorologists to run a variety of simulations. This is especially useful for those working for infrastructure companies like utilities, where incoming weather could result in outages. By essentially “war-gaming” weather events, weather managers at these companies can anticipate worst-case scenarios, allowing them to position resources and crews in areas most likely to be affected. 

As the climate heats up and extreme weather propagates more frequent and more hazardous events, modeling will be one of our best defenses, and will be the number one way to mitigate destruction and loss of life. Learn more about StormImpact’s modeling capabilities here. 

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