This week (May 5-11) is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reminds everyone to “be ready for hurricane season… Understand your risk from hurricanes, and begin pre-season preparations now.” The NHC provides excellent resources for helping you to assess your risk, make appropriate preparations, interpret forecast information, and know where and when to move as a hurricane approaches. This advice is always worth following, but it is particularly important this year given that the 2024 hurricane season is forecast to be above normal in the Atlantic Basin.
There are many different organizations that provide seasonal forecasts of expected hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. This includes university research groups (Colorado State University, North Carolina State University and University of Pennsylvania), federal agencies (NOAA, ECMWF), and companies (Tropical Storm Research). A summary of some of the forecasts that have already been released for the 2024 hurricane season are provided in Figure 1. While there is some variation in the best estimate from each of these forecasts, all of them are predicting that 2024 will be a more active than normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.
The predicted number of named storms ranges from 17 to 33, and the mean prediction is ~24 named storms. This is well above the long-term average of 14 named storms (based on 1991 to 2020). Similarly, the predicted number of hurricanes for the 2024 hurricane season ranges from 11 to 13, while the long-term average number of hurricanes is only 7 (based on 1991 to 2020). Other metrics of hurricane frequency (number of major hurricanes) and severity (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) are also forecast to be much higher than normal in 2024. The forecasts also indicate that there is likely to be greater than normal hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico and an above normal probability for major hurricanes to make landfall in the United States.
Of course, it is still early. The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and runs through November 30. The peak months for hurricane activity are August and September. Therefore, there is still considerable uncertainty in these predictions and skill is somewhat limited this far in advance.
Why are all models predicting that 2024 will be an active hurricane season? There are a few main reasons why this is forecast to be a very active year. First, sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region (10 to 20 degrees N, 20 to 60 degrees W) are currently well above average (Figure 2) and they are expected to continue to remain well above average throughout the hurricane season. A warm ocean is a source of energy for hurricanes, due to increased latent and sensible heat. Therefore, a warmer ocean favors stronger and more frequent hurricanes. Second, a moderate La Niña event is expected to occur during summer/fall 2024.
La Niña events are associated with increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin because they tend to produce favorable wind shear conditions. Finally, the trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic are forecast to be lower than normal during July to September. Weaker trade winds are associated with less wind shear and therefore greater hurricane frequency and intensity.
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Colorado State University: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
ECMWF: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_tstorm_hurricane_frequency?base_time=202405010000
Mann Research Group at University of Pennsylvania: https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchgroup/highlights/highlights-2024hurricane
North Carolina State University: https://news.ncsu.edu/2024/04/nc-state-researchers-predict-active-hurricane-season
Tropical Storm Research: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/forecasts.html
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